The Canmore Real Estate Market – First quarter of 2020 and Outlook

  

	1st Quarter 2019	1st Quarter 2020
Average number of listings	168	210 (+25%)
Average list price	987,000	1,089,000 (+10%)
Number of Sales	99	93 (-6%)
Average sale prices	731,000	738,000 (+1%)
	March 2019	March 2020
Average number of listings	172	215 (+25%)
Average list price	969,000	1,095,000 (+13%)
Number of Sales	44	27 (-39%)
Average sale prices	755,000	771,000 (+2%)

The average Number of Listings in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to 2019 is up by 25%. However March listings are also up by only 25%. >>>> That’s in the average…..there is no further increase of listings as of now. (Note that there are 4 times as many hotel condos listed in the first quarter of 2020 then there were listed in 2019.)

The average List Price of the first quarter of 2020 over the same period in 2019 was up by 10%. The average list price for March was up 13%. >>>> We have not seen a major price correction yet in overall listing prices and we are seeing the more expensive properties sitting longer and adding to the higher average. We did see a decrease in listing prices for hotel condos of over 10% and for apartments of about 9%.

The average Sale Price in 2020 was up by 1% in the first quarter of 2020 over 2019. The average sale price in March was up by 2% over 2020. >>>> We are not yet seeing an overall tendency for sale prices to come down.

The Number of Sales in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to 2019 was down 6%. However the March numbers show a decrease of 39%. >>>> We are just starting to see sales numbers go down drastically. Compared to April/May last year I anticipate an even larger decrease in sales numbers.

I believe that we will be seeing the biggest decline in sales numbers for apartments which are typically products for first time home buyers or second homes as well as hotel condos (investment properties). Cash flow from short-term rentals is completely broken away. Financing is even more challenging. 

 Detached Homes:

Detached Homes	1st Quarter 2019	1st Quarter 2020
Average number of listings	42	45 (+7%)
Average list price	1,785,000	1,763,000 (-1%)
Number of Sales	15	20 (+30%)
Average sale prices	1,079,000	1,076,000

The first quarter of 2020 saw 20 sales as compared to 15 sales in 2019. That’s an increase of 30%. However there were only 5 sales this March as compared to 8 sales in March last year which is a clear indicator of a change in trend.

Only 30% of the 43 detached homes presently listed are below $1.2 Mio. However – it shows that most of the buyers of detached properties are looking for and buying properties below this mark.

Jan 2020: 3 out of 5 sales < 1.2 Mio.

Feb 2020: 8/9 sales < 1.2 Mio.

March 2020: 4/5 sales < 1.2 Mio.

Interestingly all 4 properties that sold over $1.2 Mio., sold between $1.7Mio – $2.1Mio. There were no sales in between.

Hotel Condos:

During the first quarter of 2019, there were about 10 listings on average. In 2020 this number is up to over 40 listings. List prices have come down by 13% although the average prices of the properties that sold still increased by 5% over 2019 from $545,000 to $574,000.

Town Houses:

Number of listings increased by 27%. The sales numbers for the first quarter were up by 18% but sales numbers for March were down by ca. 25%. Average sales price decreased by 7% from $781,000 to $726,000.

Apartments:

Numbers of sales during the first quarter were down by 9%. For March the number was down by 41%. Average sales prices were up by 7% from $512,000 to 548,000.

Is the situation going to improve soon? I believe that it will get worse before it gets better. As I mentioned above, I anticipate a further sharp decline in sales numbers over the next few months. This will eventually lead to price corrections in all market segments. Especially hotel condos, apartments, townhouses will be affected as well as Detached Homes in the range of over $1Mio.

In the meantime, REALTORS are still working remotely, trying to keep the market going. We are using more online listing tools incl. virtual walkthroughs, pictures and movies. With Covid-19 it is a little complicated to show a property, but not impossible. If seller and buyer both want to make it possible, we have procedures in place to execute a home showing with minimum impact and maximum safety.

Home inspection is still possible and lawyers don’t have to sit with their clients any more. They can now witness original signatures online. So technically it is still possible to sell or buy and a market like this could present itself as a good opportunity for the well-prepared buyer. 

Thomas Krause – Canmore 08.04. 2020